A Market On a Stable Footing: What the Data Says about New Zealand Property

Price resilience persists

Let's start with the backdrop. Interest rates have stabilised, an election is approaching, household budgets remain under pressure and overseas uncertainty continues to shape sentiment here at home. Against that context, the latest REINZ figures from May show national sales down 12.6% on a year ago. At first glance, those figures suggest a market that's losing momentum.

Yet lower sales volumes have not translated into lower prices. In May the national median edged up 1.3% over the year to $775,000, while the median time to sell held steady at 47 days.

More activity is taking place at the upper end of the market: sales under $500,000 account for a smaller share than a year ago, while sales above $1 million now make up more than a quarter of all transactions. Several regions have recorded record median prices.

The lesson for vendors is simple: a quieter market is not a discount market. Well-presented homes, priced to meet the moment, are still selling and still achieving.

Quality and location matter more

But those national figures don't tell the whole story. Beneath them, a market is emerging in which quality and location are becoming the key differentiators. REINZ data shows the South Island leading the way, with Queenstown up more than 11% over the year and Canterbury reaching a record median on a 6.6% rise. Auckland is holding its ground, with its median price back above a million dollars, up 2.6% over the year.

Our latest Property Pulse survey, drawing on insights from our agents nationwide, tells the same story from the ground. Queenstown remains the strongest read in the country, with no agents reporting falling prices. Christchurch is among the steadiest markets, while Waikato agents report a clear lift in buyer activity.

Where markets have faced pressure, as Wellington has while absorbing public-sector change, those pressures have been localised. The broader picture is of buyers becoming more selective about what and where they buy.

Prestige demand continues to build

The prestige market provides perhaps the clearest example.

While the wider market slowed, our own sales have moved in the opposite direction. Year to date, sales above $5 million are up by more than a third by volume. Importantly, this growth is not being driven by a handful of exceptional sales. More buyers are entering the prestige tier. Of the ten largest residential sales in New Zealand this year, five are ours.

A portion of that demand is coming from overseas. In our latest Property Pulse survey, more than half of agents reported increased international enquiry since the Active Investor Plus visa changes, particularly in Auckland, Queenstown and the upper South Island. Australia and North America remain key buyer sources, alongside New Zealanders returning home.

Our digital data reinforces the trend. Enquiry from Australia is up 90% year on year, United Arab Emirates has more than doubled, and the United States has risen 20%, with further growth from China, India and across the Middle East.

At the very top of the market, enquiry is as strong as we have seen it.

For many affluent international buyers, the uncertainty troubling much of the world is strengthening New Zealand's appeal as a safe haven.

So what is attracting these buyers? Our agents are remarkably consistent on this. Location remains the dominant factor, followed by water outlooks, quality of finish, and architectural character and privacy. Scale and trophy amenities rank surprisingly low. Today's prestige buyer is seeking position and quality more than sheer size, and increasingly a lifestyle rather than simply a larger house.

This is not uniquely New Zealand. According to Sotheby's International Realty's Mid-Year Luxury Outlook, luxury property continues to outperform broader markets across the global network, with more than half of SIR agents reporting growth in high-end buyer activity. Sydney shows many of the same characteristics: constrained stock, returning expats, active downsizers and demand driven more by lifestyle and location than size.

What the signals are telling us

So where does that leave us? The market has slowed, but remains remarkably stable. It has become more selective. Quality, location and scarcity matter more than they did in a fast-moving market.

For vendors, quality homes continue to sell well. For the wider market, the foundations appear firm. And at the prestige end, demand remains remarkably resilient.

Viewed through every lens available to us – agent sentiment, transaction data, buyer enquiry and international demand – the conclusion is the same: the market is on stable footing, underpinned by selective demand for quality properties and desirable locations.

Sources

• REINZ May Property Report
• NZSIR Property Pulse Q2 2026
• Sotheby's International Realty Mid-Year Luxury Outlook 2026
• NZSIR internal sales and website traffic figures