WATCH: Perspectives Property Report April

Hello and welcome to Perspectives.
March data is giving us a clear read on where the housing market is sitting right now. It’s not accelerating, but neither is it retreating – it’s stabilising.

According to Cotality, National property values lifted 0.2 percent in March, marking a second consecutive month of modest gains. The median value now sits at around $802,000. But on a year-on-year basis, prices are still back nationally 1.3 percent, and well below the 2022 peak. What that tells us is the market is holding firm and improving, but momentum is still modest.

So, what comes next?

At the start of the year, there was an expectation of consistent recovery, but that has been slower to materialise than forecast. Activity has improved, and affordability has reset, but confidence hasn’t yet caught up. As a result, we’re likely to see a more measured pattern this year – with values tracking flat, rather than any dramatic uplift.

Buyer behaviour reflects that. Buyers are active, but they’re considered. With more stock available, there’s more choice, and that’s keeping pricing disciplined. It’s a value-driven environment, where decisions hinge on quality, location, and long-term value.

Interest rates remain part of the story. Borrowing is relatively affordable right now, but it's the broader economic and geopolitical uncertainty that is keeping buyer confidence in check.

It is also important to acknowledge that the latest data comes against a backdrop of rising geopolitical risk. Conflict in Iran is adding a layer of uncertainty, and that does flow through to confidence in the housing market. While my mid and long term outlook is for growth, the weeks ahead will be an important test of how resilient both the economy and the property market prove to be.

That’s the overall national picture but regionally, the picture remains far from uniform.
 
The South Island continues to stand out. Christchurch recorded a 0.6 percent lift in March, while Dunedin rose 0.7 percent. The South Island's performance is grounded in fundamentals that much of the country can't currently match — a productive agricultural base, robust tourism, and consistent population growth - and our recent sales results in Christchurch, Wanaka and Queenstown reflect that strength.
 
By contrast, parts of the North Island remain subdued. Auckland and Tauranga were flat in March, while Wellington generally  edged slightly lower. We're seeing a split in the market with buyers at the top end becoming more confident and serious — especially when the property is genuinely exceptional. Wellington is worth watching in this respect. Several significant prestige homes have recently come to market, and the depth of buyer interest there is stronger than many expect. Here are three we have brought to market:

• 66 Onslow Road in Khandallah is a six‑bedroom private sanctuary spanning 900 square metres, commanding sweeping views from the Hutt Valley to Wellington City. It is Mediterranean in spirit and arguably one of the most substantial residences the capital has seen in years.
• 34 Lookout Road in Roseneath, designed by Novak + Middleton, sits at the summit of Mount Victoria. At 585 square metres, it is as much a landmark as it is a home.
• And 3 Maramanui Way in Karaka Bay is a superbly modernised Ian Athfield residence, defined by seclusion, architectural integrity and timeless design.

Despite near‑term uncertainty, there is a longer‑term opportunity that should not be overlooked. International interest in New Zealand remains strong. Our web enquiry data continues to show heightened engagement from the United States, Europe and the Middle East. People are not just watching this market, they are actively considering it as a place to live, invest and build long‑term value, particularly with the door now open to overseas buyers again.
 
And finally, an announcement we are delighted to share.
 
New Zealand Sotheby’s International Realty has partnered with Grand Designs New Zealand. It is a natural alignment. Exceptional homes deserve to be experienced as stories, not simply listed as addresses.