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Sell with usIn this edition of Perspectives, Mark Harris, Managing Director of New Zealand Sotheby’s International Realty, takes stock of the property market at the halfway point of 2025. He shares insights on regional trends, buyer activity, and how stability is laying the foundation for future growth.
This month, we take stock of how the property market has moved so far in 2025 and look at the sales data to understand what the long-term signals are pointing to.
We’re now well into the second half of the year, and while the pace has been steady rather than sharp, the market fundamentals are laying the groundwork for what’s next.
National prices are currently sitting about 15% below their quarter 3 2021 peak and are up just 1.3% since June last year.
The OCR has dropped to 3.25% over the past year, and inflation is largely under control. But confidence – both among consumers and the market – is still finding its feet.
So the re-bound is a little slower than some anticipated. But beneath the surface, momentum is building.
Interestingly, that coming in the form of regional divergence, with some areas showing quiet strength and outstripping the average national performance.
Hawke’s Bay and Northland saw price gains of over 2% in the last quarter alone. Nelson is a standout – up 8.1% year on year. And Queenstown remains resilient, with prices lifting nearly 2% quarter-on-quarter.
Wellington and Auckland were softer, but even there, buyers are beginning to return.
First-home buyers are stepping up – they now make up over a quarter of all purchasers this year, and more than a third in Wellington. Why? Prices are lower, supply is better, LVRs have eased, and KiwiSaver is doing some heavy lifting.
Investors are also quietly re-entering. Multiple property owners made up 23% of Q2 purchases – up year on year, but still below long-term averages.
With geopolitical uncertainty offshore, New Zealand is once again seen as a safe haven and overseas interest remains high. The coalition government has indicated that foreign buyer rules will likely be loosened before the end of the year – a move that could further stimulate high-end demand, particularly in key lifestyle regions.
So while we’re not in boom territory, we are on stable ground. And in real estate, stability is often the first step to growth and sets us up for a positive run into the end of year.
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